The Commish Online www.thecommishonline.com
Fifty "Can't Miss" Projections
April 17, 2007
As discussed in a February Fantasy Focus, I have chosen to examine the validity of all these preseason player projections, published by the likes of ESPN, CBS Sportsline, Bill James, and dozens others. I gave a quick glimpse at 25 hitters and 25 pitchers and made my estimates based on nothing more than past stats, a little forethought, and an educated guess. I'm comparing my predictions against Sportsline's projected numbers, since they are readily available for everyone to view.
I'm not predicting that my numbers will be more accurate; in fact, many of the projections are quite similar. When a career .280 hitter has played for 10 years, it's tough to guess anything farther away than .275 to .285. My point, which I hope will be proven, is that projections can be made just as accurately using a common sense look at historical stats and a little knowledge of the current situation (new team, new park, etc.) without the need of a master degree in probability. I can assure you no linear equations were used in my projections, and I saved the probability tests for the math geeks.
The projections are attached in an Excel spreadsheet. The top line for each player is CBS Sportsline's projected stats and the next line (with TCO after the player name) is my projection. Midway through the season I will update the sheet, including a third line of actual stats to see who has been more accurate.